mock round 1 - 10 team league - snake draft

Safe. Thats the word to remember when you approach round one of your fantasy football draft. A line that many of you may have heard is "you can't win your league in round one but you can lose it." In round one of your draft your obviously looking for an elite player, but the key is to avoid high risk players. Many people will tell you that you need to draft a running back first round and they're both right and wrong. This year specifically there are many questions facing the majority of the elite, high potential, running backs and your goal in the first round is to avoid those players. If you have an opportunity to get one of the elite, non risk, running backs you jump on it and don't think twice, but if you miss that small group then its time to turn your attention to the elite quarterbacks, or Calvin Johnson.

Settings - scoring is based on standard yahoo public leagues
              -positions: qb, wr x3, rb x2, te, k, def

1. Ray Rice - The majority of people you will hear talking about fantasy football will probably tell you that Arian Foster is the for sure, no doubt, number one pick this year, but I'm going to tell you why I disagree. Ray Rice led the league in fantasy points for all running backs last year in standard yahoo leagues!!!! Let me repeat that, Ray Rice led the league in fantasy points for all running backs last year in standard yahoo leagues!!!!! Furthermore, have you ever heard of Ray Rices backup? Well, in case you were wondering his name is Anthony Allen and it doesn't appear that he will be taking away much work, if any, from Rice. On the other hand, Arian Foster has a backup named Ben Tate who last year rushed for almost 1000 yards and 4 TD's and I'm a little nervous that he will slightly encroach on Fosters carries. The argument to take Arian Foster here, is that in the 13 games that he played in, in 2011 he averaged more points per game then Ray Rice did in yahoo standard leagues. If your wondering how many more points he averaged per game then Rice, well the answer is .7. If you do take Foster with the number one overall pick of your draft you can't go wrong and if it makes you feel any better i have him at number 2. There may not be much separation between Foster and Rice and I admit that I am just knit picking, but as I said before the word of the day is "safe" and I personally think that Rice is the safer play.

2. Arian Foster - Now that Ray Rice is off the board you need to make a decision between Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy. Ill begin by explaining again that I'm really just knit picking and if you get either one of these players you should be able to breathe easy until your second round pick. That being said, I'm going Arian Foster with the number two overall pick of my draft. Although McCoy scored more fantasy points last year then Foster did, I don't think that McCoy will reach his touchdown total of last year. Last year McCoy had 17 rushing and 3 recieving touchdowns which in itself is a number that will be difficult to duplicate. On top of that, Michael Vick rushed for only one touchdown last year and I believe that Vick will increase that number this year which will only take away from some of McCoys goal line attempts. The argument here against Foster is what I explained earlier. He has Ben Tate behind him and he's a tad more fragile. If you get either one of these running backs breathe easy. You have an elite running back with very low risk. There's nothing better.

3. Lesean McCoy - Congratulations. You have the third overall pick and the last opportuinity to get an elite running back with very low risk. McCoy may not duplicate the touchdown total that he reached last season but even if you take away 5 of his touchdowns he still would have finished 4th among all running backs last year. Furthermore, the Eagles have discussed using LeSean McCoy more in the receiving game this year which will make up for the expected slight drop in touchdowns. Take Mccoy here with lots of confidence, sit back, get something to drink and get ready for your second round pick.

4. Aaron Rodgers - Now that all the elite running backs with low risk are off the board it's time to turn your attention to elite players with low risk at the other positions. You can't go wrong with Aaron Rodgers here at the fourth pick. Aaron Rodgers scored the 2nd most fantasy points last season, finishing behind only Drew Brees by 3 points while playing one less game. He averaged 26 points per game last season and if he continues at that pace this year then you have a chance to win every one of your fantasy games. There are no signs of Aaron Rodgers slowing down this year. News from Packers training camp is that WR Jordy Nelson looks better than ever and WR Randall Cobb is poised for a big season. In addition, Rodgers still has Jermichael Finley, one of the elite TE's in the league, plus star receiver Greg Jennings.

5. Tom Brady - I'm drafting Brady here with the 5th pick for similar reasons as to why I drafted Aaron Rodgers with the previous pick. Brady averaged close to 23 points per game in 2011 and just like Rodgers he has no signs of slowing down. Brady may have the most lethal weapons at his disposal than he's ever had. He has a new Moss-like deep threat in Brandon Lloyd, two of the games best tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and lets not forget a guy named Wes Welker. If you have Brady on your team you will have an opportunity to win every one of your games and you can't ask for anything more from your first round pick. You have an elite quarterback with very low risk. Your sitting pretty waiting for your next pick.

6. Calvin Johnson - The next player that should be coming off the board is Calvin Johnson. Johnson put up out of this world numbers last year and theres no reason to believe he can't do it again. Even if you take away 7 of Johnsons touchdowns last year he would still lead all receivers in fantasy points! 7 touchdowns! I'm normally not one to take a Wide Receiver this early especially since the wide receiver position is extremely deep this year, but you can't pass up someone that dominates his position like he does. Don't believe in the madden curse. Johnson is in for a huge year and even if he doesn't duplicate his numbers from last year he will still most likely lead all receivers in fantasy points. Matthew Stafford trusts Johnson to catch anything he throws his way.

7. Drew Brees - You may be wondering why I put Drew Brees behind Calvin Johnson. The answer is that although Brees is very similar in fantasy points per game to both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers he has a question mark. Its a small question mark and most likely insignificant, but a question mark nonetheless. His coaching staff has been overhauled this season due to the bounty program and no ones sure how it will affect the New Orleans Saints as a team. That being said, I still consider Brees a safe pick and well worth a first round pick I just have him dropped one spot because of the slight uncertainty. Brees still has Jimmy Graham, one of the elite tight ends in the league and his star receiver Marques Colston. If you decide to take Brees before Calvin you should feel comfortable as you wait for your next pick. Brees averaged an astounding 24 points per game last year and is a great pick in the middle part of the first round.

8. Chris Johnson - I know, I know. The word of the day is safe. Let me explain.  We all know how Chris Johnson killed fantasy owners last year and anyone that had him on their team will probably never draft him again. That being said, I still don't think we should forget the fantasy numbers that Johnson put up in 2010. Last year Johnson held out for the majority of training camp which is what I believe led to the kind of year he had. (Thats the reason why I'm not taking Maurice Jones Drew on any of my teams.) It doesn't matter how much a player tries to stay in shape on his own, there's nothing like football shape. If you recall in 2010 Johnson had 1600 total yards and 12 total touchdowns and if you get anywhere close to those numbers this year you will have the steal of the draft at number 8 overall. Johnson has had a full training camp this year and coaches are saying he's looked better then ever and I fully expect a bounce back year. For most people this might be too much of a question mark, but I personally don't feel like it is. If I have the opportunity to take Johnson late in the first round I'm grabbing him with no second thoughts.

9. Matthew Stafford - If you have the 9th pick and all the previous players that I have listed have been taken then Staffords your best bet.. It may not excite you to take the fourth best quarterback with your first round pick, but don't forget the word of the day. I don't believe that there's another running back out there without any strong questions and I don't want to take a wide receiver here because of how deep the position is. That leaves Stafford. Picking Stafford here shouldn't bother you simply because of the kind of season he had last year. He scored almost 22 points per game last year which is very close to the elite quarterbacks that I have already discussed. The only piece of Staffords resume that bothers me is the injury bug. Last year was Staffords first full season, but the kind of season he produced makes him worth a late first round pick. He still has one of the most talented receivers to ever live and other weapons around him, plus coming into the season the Lions have big question marks surrounding their run game which may force Stafford to throw even more. Like the other quarterbacks Stafford will give you an opportunity to win every game you play and you can't ask for anything more from your first round pick.

10. Matt Forte - Ill preface my explanation by stating that this was the toughest decision of the 10 picks in the first round. With my first round pick I'm still trying to avoid selecting a wide receiver and I don't believe that theres another quarterback with less holes than I could find in Forte. The main question facing Forte is the addition of Michael Bush who many believe will take away from Fortes goal line carries. The reason I decided to take Forte here is because that question mark is almost irrelevant altogether! Touchdowns have never been Fortes game! He averaged 13 points per game last year and scored only 4 touchdowns. His game is yards and there is no reason to believe that those numbers will slip. The other main concern with Forte is the injury question. Last year Forte only played in 12 games which may scare most people, but it was only one less game then Foster played in last year and in 2010 Forte played in all 16 games. I believe that your best bet is Forte at the end of round 1 especially because of the major question marks surrounding all other running backs. In a snake draft you will also have the next selection and the opportunity to get a guy like Cam Newton, a top wr or a high risk high potential running back.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to ask even if they are unrelated to the post. If you would like me to write a mock for a different type of league then just let me know. Hope this helped.