The fantasy season is about to begin and many important decisions must be made. Most leagues have already completed their drafts and it is time to decide who to start and who to sit. The decisions you make can be the difference between a win and a loss. If anyone has any questions I am here to help.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Instant fantasy updates
For leagues that don't play with waivers this will be very useful. I will post immediately during football games players that should be added to your rosters. If you have the posts sent to your phone you will have constant fantasy football updates and this will give you a big advantage over the rest of your league participants. If a guy like Demarco Murray has a breakout game this season you will be the first to know.
mock round 2
If you followed my draft advice for the first round your in good shape for your second pick. Don't forget that its a snake draft so we will now start with the team that selected Matt Forte in the first round. Also my mock draft does not resemble my player rankings it is based on depth at each position, who each team has already selected and other strategic factors. If you would like my player rankings just post a comment and let me know.
In the second round it is time to start selecting players who will have some risk, but very high upside specifically at the running back position. Cam Newton is the only quarterback that should be selected in the second round and it is the round where wide receivers and tight ends will begin to come off the board.
11. Cam Newton (selected Matt Forte in the first round) - There are many running backs left with very high upside, but since you already selected Forte in the first round, you have a great opportunity to get the last of the elite quarterbacks as a great compliment to your previous selection. The only knock on Newton is that he's coming into his sophomore year which is known to be a difficult adjustment year for many quarterbacks, but if he plays anywhere close to the level he was at last year you will have a great first two round selections. Last year Newton scored more fantasy points then both Brady and Stafford and although his rushing touchdown total may slip a little he still has tons of upside and is still worth a high second round pick.
12. Darren McFadden (selected Matthew Stafford) - McFadden is by far the toughest player to rank in this years draft. Sometimes I wonder if rocket science actually is any harder than ranking McFadden. McFadden has the potential to be the number one fantasy back this year making everyone else kick themselves for passing up on him. On the other hand, he also has the likelihood of getting injured in his next preseason game and out for 4-6 weeks, if your lucky. In McFadden's four seasons in the league he has never played in more then 13 games and theres no reason to believe that the trend will be any different this year. Someone once told me that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. If you draft McFadden this year you may very well fit the definition. That being said, in the games that McFadden has played in, in the past two seasons he is averaging almost 16 fantasy points per game on an astounding 5.2 yards a carry. I'm feeling a little insane and I think that this is the year McFadden stays healthy. If your feeling it with me then McFadden is a great selection at the 12th pick, but if you decide to pass up on him and let someone else take him I don't blame you. Draft with caution.
13. Demarco Murray (selected Chris Johnson) - If a player is ever compared to one of the all time greats, Emmit Smith, I'll always feel good drafting him on to my team. Last season, before Murray got injured, starting with his break out game against the Rams, he averaged over 14 fantasy points per game. There are two question marks with Murray, one being his injury susceptibility and the other that over the last four games Murray played in he only averaged 55 yards rushing and scored no touchdowns. If that is the Murray you get this year then you will look back and regret passing up on some of the elite tight ends and the elite wide receivers. If you get the running back we saw carve up the Rams defense for 253 yards then Murray will be a steal this late in the draft and pairing him with C. Johnson will give you a dangerous running back tandem. Like I said with McFadden, draft with caution (which will be a theme with many of the second and third round running backs), but I really like the upside.
14. Marshawn Lynch (Drew Brees) - At this point I would have liked to take Larry Fitzgerald before Lynch, but this year it will be very difficult to find two starting running backs if you don't take one until the third round. Last season Lynch ran and caught for an unbelievable 1400 yards and a combined 13 touchdowns. If you get that kind of production from Lynch this season he will have excellent value in the middle of the second round. The problem is you don't know which Lynch your going to be drafting. In 2009 and 2010 combined Lynch didn't get to the 1400 yard mark which he exceeded last season. Additionally, last season was a contract year for Lynch and surprisingly, not really, players tend to reach their potential in their contract seasons. If Lynch decides to take it easy and turn in a 2009 or 2010 kind of performance you may be kicking yourself come mid season, but if he reaches the numbers he is capable of you have a top 5 running back topped off with an excellent quarterback.
15. Ryan Matthews (Calvin Johnson) - Matthews has a similar profile as the previously discussed player, Darren McFadden. He has a lot of upside, but his injury concern must scare anyone thinking about drafting him this season. Before Matthews got injured in the preseason it seemed to be the consensus that he was a lock to be a top five fantasy pick this year. Then on his very first carry in the preseason Matthews broke his clavicle and is going to miss the rest of the preseason and possibly one or two games in the regular season. That said, his injury, unlike many other running backs coming into this season, shouldn't effect his running ability. He's able to stay in shape while he recovers from his injury and should be able to return to the field at almost the same level he had reached when he got injured. When you draft him you need to know that he is very injury prone but if he is able to stay healthy for the rest of the season he should be a fantasy star. Last season he finished 9th among all running backs in fantasy points while his backup Mike Tolbert also scored 10 touchdowns. Tolbert is now in Carolina and Matthews is prepared to be the workhorse back. He has lot of upside and lots of risk. (Draft with Caution.)
16. Larry Fitzgerald
17. Jimmy Graham
18. Rob Gronkowski
19. Julio Jones
20. Brandon Marshall
In the second round it is time to start selecting players who will have some risk, but very high upside specifically at the running back position. Cam Newton is the only quarterback that should be selected in the second round and it is the round where wide receivers and tight ends will begin to come off the board.
11. Cam Newton (selected Matt Forte in the first round) - There are many running backs left with very high upside, but since you already selected Forte in the first round, you have a great opportunity to get the last of the elite quarterbacks as a great compliment to your previous selection. The only knock on Newton is that he's coming into his sophomore year which is known to be a difficult adjustment year for many quarterbacks, but if he plays anywhere close to the level he was at last year you will have a great first two round selections. Last year Newton scored more fantasy points then both Brady and Stafford and although his rushing touchdown total may slip a little he still has tons of upside and is still worth a high second round pick.
12. Darren McFadden (selected Matthew Stafford) - McFadden is by far the toughest player to rank in this years draft. Sometimes I wonder if rocket science actually is any harder than ranking McFadden. McFadden has the potential to be the number one fantasy back this year making everyone else kick themselves for passing up on him. On the other hand, he also has the likelihood of getting injured in his next preseason game and out for 4-6 weeks, if your lucky. In McFadden's four seasons in the league he has never played in more then 13 games and theres no reason to believe that the trend will be any different this year. Someone once told me that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. If you draft McFadden this year you may very well fit the definition. That being said, in the games that McFadden has played in, in the past two seasons he is averaging almost 16 fantasy points per game on an astounding 5.2 yards a carry. I'm feeling a little insane and I think that this is the year McFadden stays healthy. If your feeling it with me then McFadden is a great selection at the 12th pick, but if you decide to pass up on him and let someone else take him I don't blame you. Draft with caution.
13. Demarco Murray (selected Chris Johnson) - If a player is ever compared to one of the all time greats, Emmit Smith, I'll always feel good drafting him on to my team. Last season, before Murray got injured, starting with his break out game against the Rams, he averaged over 14 fantasy points per game. There are two question marks with Murray, one being his injury susceptibility and the other that over the last four games Murray played in he only averaged 55 yards rushing and scored no touchdowns. If that is the Murray you get this year then you will look back and regret passing up on some of the elite tight ends and the elite wide receivers. If you get the running back we saw carve up the Rams defense for 253 yards then Murray will be a steal this late in the draft and pairing him with C. Johnson will give you a dangerous running back tandem. Like I said with McFadden, draft with caution (which will be a theme with many of the second and third round running backs), but I really like the upside.
14. Marshawn Lynch (Drew Brees) - At this point I would have liked to take Larry Fitzgerald before Lynch, but this year it will be very difficult to find two starting running backs if you don't take one until the third round. Last season Lynch ran and caught for an unbelievable 1400 yards and a combined 13 touchdowns. If you get that kind of production from Lynch this season he will have excellent value in the middle of the second round. The problem is you don't know which Lynch your going to be drafting. In 2009 and 2010 combined Lynch didn't get to the 1400 yard mark which he exceeded last season. Additionally, last season was a contract year for Lynch and surprisingly, not really, players tend to reach their potential in their contract seasons. If Lynch decides to take it easy and turn in a 2009 or 2010 kind of performance you may be kicking yourself come mid season, but if he reaches the numbers he is capable of you have a top 5 running back topped off with an excellent quarterback.
15. Ryan Matthews (Calvin Johnson) - Matthews has a similar profile as the previously discussed player, Darren McFadden. He has a lot of upside, but his injury concern must scare anyone thinking about drafting him this season. Before Matthews got injured in the preseason it seemed to be the consensus that he was a lock to be a top five fantasy pick this year. Then on his very first carry in the preseason Matthews broke his clavicle and is going to miss the rest of the preseason and possibly one or two games in the regular season. That said, his injury, unlike many other running backs coming into this season, shouldn't effect his running ability. He's able to stay in shape while he recovers from his injury and should be able to return to the field at almost the same level he had reached when he got injured. When you draft him you need to know that he is very injury prone but if he is able to stay healthy for the rest of the season he should be a fantasy star. Last season he finished 9th among all running backs in fantasy points while his backup Mike Tolbert also scored 10 touchdowns. Tolbert is now in Carolina and Matthews is prepared to be the workhorse back. He has lot of upside and lots of risk. (Draft with Caution.)
16. Larry Fitzgerald
17. Jimmy Graham
18. Rob Gronkowski
19. Julio Jones
20. Brandon Marshall
Friday, August 17, 2012
advice for drafting running backs this season
As I discussed in the introduction to my mock round one draft it is very difficult to assess many of the running backs after the elite 4 or 5. Each and every one of them has a reason why you may be better off letting someone else draft them. Therefore, if you select a quarterback or lets say Calvin Johnson with your first round pick you may be worried as to which running back you will be left with as your second running back. After speaking to many people this a concern that most people share. Although at first glance it may seem like an issue there are in fact a few running backs that are worthy starters that you should target in the 6th or 7th round range.
1. Willis McGahee
2. Donald Brown
3. Stevan Ridley (depending on the seriousness of his recent injury)
4. Isaac Redman (depending on the seriousness of his recent injury)
5. Kevin Smith
6. Rashad Jennings (depending on the holdout situation with Maurice Jones Drew)
There are many other running backs that are worth selecting like Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart, Mike Goodson and a few others that aren't yet starters for their team. If the running back ahead of them on the depth chart suffers some sort of injury you can expect them to take over and have a major fantasy impact.
If you would like an explanation on any of the players I listed just let me know. Good Luck.
1. Willis McGahee
2. Donald Brown
3. Stevan Ridley (depending on the seriousness of his recent injury)
4. Isaac Redman (depending on the seriousness of his recent injury)
5. Kevin Smith
6. Rashad Jennings (depending on the holdout situation with Maurice Jones Drew)
There are many other running backs that are worth selecting like Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart, Mike Goodson and a few others that aren't yet starters for their team. If the running back ahead of them on the depth chart suffers some sort of injury you can expect them to take over and have a major fantasy impact.
If you would like an explanation on any of the players I listed just let me know. Good Luck.
Fantasy Football Sleepers
Something important to remember is that leagues aren't won in the early part of drafts. They are a won with your later picks. Last year if you drafted WR Steve Smith, TE Jimmy Graham, QB Cam Newton and many others you know what I'm talking about. Those players were a part of many championship fantasy teams last year and it's your job (or my job) to locate players who have that kind of potential later in drafts. My list of sleepers are not players that you should reach for, but if you have the opportunity to select on of these players late in your draft they have a lot of potential and great value. My sleepers are listed in no particular order and I only listed 5 of them. If you would like a more complete list comment and let me know. You can even email me at ffballadvice@gmail.com.
1. WR Titus Young - Word from Lions camp is that Young looks incredible and is ready to start opposite star reciever Calvin Johnson. Last season, while being bothered by injuries, Young racked up 600 yards and 6 touchdowns and this year we expect those numbers to increase. He has a guy named Matthew Stafford throwing him the football which immediately makes him a viable fantasy option. Youngs average draft position is in the 120s and if you select him anywhere near there your getting excellent value.
2. WR Jon Baldwin - As long as Dwyane Bowe continues his holdout Baldwin is the steal of the draft. He will be the top target in the Kansas City offense and theres no better feeling than getting a number one receiver so late in the draft. If you draft Baldwin in the 140's where he is being selected now laugh at the rest of your league participants until at least Dwyane Bowe returns. Even if Bowe does indeed return Baldwin will still be in the starting unit and and at 6"4 230 lbs he's got all the qualities you look for in a WR.
3. RB Rashad Jennings - "Maurice Jones Drew, please return to camp." Maurice Jones Drew, please return to camp." I can hear the cries of Jaguars fans waiting for their star running back to return to the team. In the meantime, fantasy owners should be going with his backup Jennings and avoiding MJD. We all remember what Chris Johnson put his owners through last year, and MJD seems to be in a similar situation this year. There is nothing like football shape and even if MJD returns we don't know what kind of shape he will be in. There is talk from Jaguars camp that even if MJD returns he won't be inserted into the starting role right away. Last year Jennings rushed for 5.5 yards a carry and although it's hard to replace a guy like MJD, Jennings can easily turn into a number two running back if MJD continues his holdout.
4. WR Davone Bess - Last season Bess caught for almost 550 yards and 3 touchdowns opposite Brandon Marshall. This year Marshall is now in Chicago and Chad Johnson was just recently cut by the Miami Dolphins. Everyone that has watched Dolphins camp agrees that Bess has the surest hands on the team and if Tannehill can put in a solid rookie season all signs point to Bess being the go to option. Bess has more value in a PPR league, (point per reception) but i believe that this year he has the potential to be a solid third receiver even without a point per reception. Bess is currently going undrafted in most leagues, and if you can get him late in your draft he is a worthwhile selection.
5. RB Kevin Smith - Recently it has been reported that RB Jahvid Best will most likely be starting the season on the PUP list and RB Mikel Leshoure is also out for the first 2 weeks of the season because of a suspension. Smith will be the lone back for the Detroit offense for at least the first 2 weeks and if he turns in solid performances he may be given a significant role moving forward. Expect the Lions to score a lot of points which will benefit Smith as a fantasy option. Currently, Smith is being drafted in the 120's and if you can get him there it is a great value pick with a lot of potential.
If you have any questions or comments feel free.
1. WR Titus Young - Word from Lions camp is that Young looks incredible and is ready to start opposite star reciever Calvin Johnson. Last season, while being bothered by injuries, Young racked up 600 yards and 6 touchdowns and this year we expect those numbers to increase. He has a guy named Matthew Stafford throwing him the football which immediately makes him a viable fantasy option. Youngs average draft position is in the 120s and if you select him anywhere near there your getting excellent value.
2. WR Jon Baldwin - As long as Dwyane Bowe continues his holdout Baldwin is the steal of the draft. He will be the top target in the Kansas City offense and theres no better feeling than getting a number one receiver so late in the draft. If you draft Baldwin in the 140's where he is being selected now laugh at the rest of your league participants until at least Dwyane Bowe returns. Even if Bowe does indeed return Baldwin will still be in the starting unit and and at 6"4 230 lbs he's got all the qualities you look for in a WR.
3. RB Rashad Jennings - "Maurice Jones Drew, please return to camp." Maurice Jones Drew, please return to camp." I can hear the cries of Jaguars fans waiting for their star running back to return to the team. In the meantime, fantasy owners should be going with his backup Jennings and avoiding MJD. We all remember what Chris Johnson put his owners through last year, and MJD seems to be in a similar situation this year. There is nothing like football shape and even if MJD returns we don't know what kind of shape he will be in. There is talk from Jaguars camp that even if MJD returns he won't be inserted into the starting role right away. Last year Jennings rushed for 5.5 yards a carry and although it's hard to replace a guy like MJD, Jennings can easily turn into a number two running back if MJD continues his holdout.
4. WR Davone Bess - Last season Bess caught for almost 550 yards and 3 touchdowns opposite Brandon Marshall. This year Marshall is now in Chicago and Chad Johnson was just recently cut by the Miami Dolphins. Everyone that has watched Dolphins camp agrees that Bess has the surest hands on the team and if Tannehill can put in a solid rookie season all signs point to Bess being the go to option. Bess has more value in a PPR league, (point per reception) but i believe that this year he has the potential to be a solid third receiver even without a point per reception. Bess is currently going undrafted in most leagues, and if you can get him late in your draft he is a worthwhile selection.
5. RB Kevin Smith - Recently it has been reported that RB Jahvid Best will most likely be starting the season on the PUP list and RB Mikel Leshoure is also out for the first 2 weeks of the season because of a suspension. Smith will be the lone back for the Detroit offense for at least the first 2 weeks and if he turns in solid performances he may be given a significant role moving forward. Expect the Lions to score a lot of points which will benefit Smith as a fantasy option. Currently, Smith is being drafted in the 120's and if you can get him there it is a great value pick with a lot of potential.
If you have any questions or comments feel free.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
mock round 1 - 10 team league - snake draft
Safe. Thats the word to remember when you approach round one of your fantasy football draft. A line that many of you may have heard is "you can't win your league in round one but you can lose it." In round one of your draft your obviously looking for an elite player, but the key is to avoid high risk players. Many people will tell you that you need to draft a running back first round and they're both right and wrong. This year specifically there are many questions facing the majority of the elite, high potential, running backs and your goal in the first round is to avoid those players. If you have an opportunity to get one of the elite, non risk, running backs you jump on it and don't think twice, but if you miss that small group then its time to turn your attention to the elite quarterbacks, or Calvin Johnson.
Settings - scoring is based on standard yahoo public leagues
-positions: qb, wr x3, rb x2, te, k, def
1. Ray Rice - The majority of people you will hear talking about fantasy football will probably tell you that Arian Foster is the for sure, no doubt, number one pick this year, but I'm going to tell you why I disagree. Ray Rice led the league in fantasy points for all running backs last year in standard yahoo leagues!!!! Let me repeat that, Ray Rice led the league in fantasy points for all running backs last year in standard yahoo leagues!!!!! Furthermore, have you ever heard of Ray Rices backup? Well, in case you were wondering his name is Anthony Allen and it doesn't appear that he will be taking away much work, if any, from Rice. On the other hand, Arian Foster has a backup named Ben Tate who last year rushed for almost 1000 yards and 4 TD's and I'm a little nervous that he will slightly encroach on Fosters carries. The argument to take Arian Foster here, is that in the 13 games that he played in, in 2011 he averaged more points per game then Ray Rice did in yahoo standard leagues. If your wondering how many more points he averaged per game then Rice, well the answer is .7. If you do take Foster with the number one overall pick of your draft you can't go wrong and if it makes you feel any better i have him at number 2. There may not be much separation between Foster and Rice and I admit that I am just knit picking, but as I said before the word of the day is "safe" and I personally think that Rice is the safer play.
2. Arian Foster - Now that Ray Rice is off the board you need to make a decision between Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy. Ill begin by explaining again that I'm really just knit picking and if you get either one of these players you should be able to breathe easy until your second round pick. That being said, I'm going Arian Foster with the number two overall pick of my draft. Although McCoy scored more fantasy points last year then Foster did, I don't think that McCoy will reach his touchdown total of last year. Last year McCoy had 17 rushing and 3 recieving touchdowns which in itself is a number that will be difficult to duplicate. On top of that, Michael Vick rushed for only one touchdown last year and I believe that Vick will increase that number this year which will only take away from some of McCoys goal line attempts. The argument here against Foster is what I explained earlier. He has Ben Tate behind him and he's a tad more fragile. If you get either one of these running backs breathe easy. You have an elite running back with very low risk. There's nothing better.
3. Lesean McCoy - Congratulations. You have the third overall pick and the last opportuinity to get an elite running back with very low risk. McCoy may not duplicate the touchdown total that he reached last season but even if you take away 5 of his touchdowns he still would have finished 4th among all running backs last year. Furthermore, the Eagles have discussed using LeSean McCoy more in the receiving game this year which will make up for the expected slight drop in touchdowns. Take Mccoy here with lots of confidence, sit back, get something to drink and get ready for your second round pick.
4. Aaron Rodgers - Now that all the elite running backs with low risk are off the board it's time to turn your attention to elite players with low risk at the other positions. You can't go wrong with Aaron Rodgers here at the fourth pick. Aaron Rodgers scored the 2nd most fantasy points last season, finishing behind only Drew Brees by 3 points while playing one less game. He averaged 26 points per game last season and if he continues at that pace this year then you have a chance to win every one of your fantasy games. There are no signs of Aaron Rodgers slowing down this year. News from Packers training camp is that WR Jordy Nelson looks better than ever and WR Randall Cobb is poised for a big season. In addition, Rodgers still has Jermichael Finley, one of the elite TE's in the league, plus star receiver Greg Jennings.
5. Tom Brady - I'm drafting Brady here with the 5th pick for similar reasons as to why I drafted Aaron Rodgers with the previous pick. Brady averaged close to 23 points per game in 2011 and just like Rodgers he has no signs of slowing down. Brady may have the most lethal weapons at his disposal than he's ever had. He has a new Moss-like deep threat in Brandon Lloyd, two of the games best tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and lets not forget a guy named Wes Welker. If you have Brady on your team you will have an opportunity to win every one of your games and you can't ask for anything more from your first round pick. You have an elite quarterback with very low risk. Your sitting pretty waiting for your next pick.
6. Calvin Johnson - The next player that should be coming off the board is Calvin Johnson. Johnson put up out of this world numbers last year and theres no reason to believe he can't do it again. Even if you take away 7 of Johnsons touchdowns last year he would still lead all receivers in fantasy points! 7 touchdowns! I'm normally not one to take a Wide Receiver this early especially since the wide receiver position is extremely deep this year, but you can't pass up someone that dominates his position like he does. Don't believe in the madden curse. Johnson is in for a huge year and even if he doesn't duplicate his numbers from last year he will still most likely lead all receivers in fantasy points. Matthew Stafford trusts Johnson to catch anything he throws his way.
7. Drew Brees - You may be wondering why I put Drew Brees behind Calvin Johnson. The answer is that although Brees is very similar in fantasy points per game to both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers he has a question mark. Its a small question mark and most likely insignificant, but a question mark nonetheless. His coaching staff has been overhauled this season due to the bounty program and no ones sure how it will affect the New Orleans Saints as a team. That being said, I still consider Brees a safe pick and well worth a first round pick I just have him dropped one spot because of the slight uncertainty. Brees still has Jimmy Graham, one of the elite tight ends in the league and his star receiver Marques Colston. If you decide to take Brees before Calvin you should feel comfortable as you wait for your next pick. Brees averaged an astounding 24 points per game last year and is a great pick in the middle part of the first round.
8. Chris Johnson - I know, I know. The word of the day is safe. Let me explain. We all know how Chris Johnson killed fantasy owners last year and anyone that had him on their team will probably never draft him again. That being said, I still don't think we should forget the fantasy numbers that Johnson put up in 2010. Last year Johnson held out for the majority of training camp which is what I believe led to the kind of year he had. (Thats the reason why I'm not taking Maurice Jones Drew on any of my teams.) It doesn't matter how much a player tries to stay in shape on his own, there's nothing like football shape. If you recall in 2010 Johnson had 1600 total yards and 12 total touchdowns and if you get anywhere close to those numbers this year you will have the steal of the draft at number 8 overall. Johnson has had a full training camp this year and coaches are saying he's looked better then ever and I fully expect a bounce back year. For most people this might be too much of a question mark, but I personally don't feel like it is. If I have the opportunity to take Johnson late in the first round I'm grabbing him with no second thoughts.
9. Matthew Stafford - If you have the 9th pick and all the previous players that I have listed have been taken then Staffords your best bet.. It may not excite you to take the fourth best quarterback with your first round pick, but don't forget the word of the day. I don't believe that there's another running back out there without any strong questions and I don't want to take a wide receiver here because of how deep the position is. That leaves Stafford. Picking Stafford here shouldn't bother you simply because of the kind of season he had last year. He scored almost 22 points per game last year which is very close to the elite quarterbacks that I have already discussed. The only piece of Staffords resume that bothers me is the injury bug. Last year was Staffords first full season, but the kind of season he produced makes him worth a late first round pick. He still has one of the most talented receivers to ever live and other weapons around him, plus coming into the season the Lions have big question marks surrounding their run game which may force Stafford to throw even more. Like the other quarterbacks Stafford will give you an opportunity to win every game you play and you can't ask for anything more from your first round pick.
10. Matt Forte - Ill preface my explanation by stating that this was the toughest decision of the 10 picks in the first round. With my first round pick I'm still trying to avoid selecting a wide receiver and I don't believe that theres another quarterback with less holes than I could find in Forte. The main question facing Forte is the addition of Michael Bush who many believe will take away from Fortes goal line carries. The reason I decided to take Forte here is because that question mark is almost irrelevant altogether! Touchdowns have never been Fortes game! He averaged 13 points per game last year and scored only 4 touchdowns. His game is yards and there is no reason to believe that those numbers will slip. The other main concern with Forte is the injury question. Last year Forte only played in 12 games which may scare most people, but it was only one less game then Foster played in last year and in 2010 Forte played in all 16 games. I believe that your best bet is Forte at the end of round 1 especially because of the major question marks surrounding all other running backs. In a snake draft you will also have the next selection and the opportunity to get a guy like Cam Newton, a top wr or a high risk high potential running back.
If you have any questions or comments feel free to ask even if they are unrelated to the post. If you would like me to write a mock for a different type of league then just let me know. Hope this helped.
Settings - scoring is based on standard yahoo public leagues
-positions: qb, wr x3, rb x2, te, k, def
1. Ray Rice - The majority of people you will hear talking about fantasy football will probably tell you that Arian Foster is the for sure, no doubt, number one pick this year, but I'm going to tell you why I disagree. Ray Rice led the league in fantasy points for all running backs last year in standard yahoo leagues!!!! Let me repeat that, Ray Rice led the league in fantasy points for all running backs last year in standard yahoo leagues!!!!! Furthermore, have you ever heard of Ray Rices backup? Well, in case you were wondering his name is Anthony Allen and it doesn't appear that he will be taking away much work, if any, from Rice. On the other hand, Arian Foster has a backup named Ben Tate who last year rushed for almost 1000 yards and 4 TD's and I'm a little nervous that he will slightly encroach on Fosters carries. The argument to take Arian Foster here, is that in the 13 games that he played in, in 2011 he averaged more points per game then Ray Rice did in yahoo standard leagues. If your wondering how many more points he averaged per game then Rice, well the answer is .7. If you do take Foster with the number one overall pick of your draft you can't go wrong and if it makes you feel any better i have him at number 2. There may not be much separation between Foster and Rice and I admit that I am just knit picking, but as I said before the word of the day is "safe" and I personally think that Rice is the safer play.
2. Arian Foster - Now that Ray Rice is off the board you need to make a decision between Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy. Ill begin by explaining again that I'm really just knit picking and if you get either one of these players you should be able to breathe easy until your second round pick. That being said, I'm going Arian Foster with the number two overall pick of my draft. Although McCoy scored more fantasy points last year then Foster did, I don't think that McCoy will reach his touchdown total of last year. Last year McCoy had 17 rushing and 3 recieving touchdowns which in itself is a number that will be difficult to duplicate. On top of that, Michael Vick rushed for only one touchdown last year and I believe that Vick will increase that number this year which will only take away from some of McCoys goal line attempts. The argument here against Foster is what I explained earlier. He has Ben Tate behind him and he's a tad more fragile. If you get either one of these running backs breathe easy. You have an elite running back with very low risk. There's nothing better.
3. Lesean McCoy - Congratulations. You have the third overall pick and the last opportuinity to get an elite running back with very low risk. McCoy may not duplicate the touchdown total that he reached last season but even if you take away 5 of his touchdowns he still would have finished 4th among all running backs last year. Furthermore, the Eagles have discussed using LeSean McCoy more in the receiving game this year which will make up for the expected slight drop in touchdowns. Take Mccoy here with lots of confidence, sit back, get something to drink and get ready for your second round pick.
4. Aaron Rodgers - Now that all the elite running backs with low risk are off the board it's time to turn your attention to elite players with low risk at the other positions. You can't go wrong with Aaron Rodgers here at the fourth pick. Aaron Rodgers scored the 2nd most fantasy points last season, finishing behind only Drew Brees by 3 points while playing one less game. He averaged 26 points per game last season and if he continues at that pace this year then you have a chance to win every one of your fantasy games. There are no signs of Aaron Rodgers slowing down this year. News from Packers training camp is that WR Jordy Nelson looks better than ever and WR Randall Cobb is poised for a big season. In addition, Rodgers still has Jermichael Finley, one of the elite TE's in the league, plus star receiver Greg Jennings.
5. Tom Brady - I'm drafting Brady here with the 5th pick for similar reasons as to why I drafted Aaron Rodgers with the previous pick. Brady averaged close to 23 points per game in 2011 and just like Rodgers he has no signs of slowing down. Brady may have the most lethal weapons at his disposal than he's ever had. He has a new Moss-like deep threat in Brandon Lloyd, two of the games best tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and lets not forget a guy named Wes Welker. If you have Brady on your team you will have an opportunity to win every one of your games and you can't ask for anything more from your first round pick. You have an elite quarterback with very low risk. Your sitting pretty waiting for your next pick.
6. Calvin Johnson - The next player that should be coming off the board is Calvin Johnson. Johnson put up out of this world numbers last year and theres no reason to believe he can't do it again. Even if you take away 7 of Johnsons touchdowns last year he would still lead all receivers in fantasy points! 7 touchdowns! I'm normally not one to take a Wide Receiver this early especially since the wide receiver position is extremely deep this year, but you can't pass up someone that dominates his position like he does. Don't believe in the madden curse. Johnson is in for a huge year and even if he doesn't duplicate his numbers from last year he will still most likely lead all receivers in fantasy points. Matthew Stafford trusts Johnson to catch anything he throws his way.
7. Drew Brees - You may be wondering why I put Drew Brees behind Calvin Johnson. The answer is that although Brees is very similar in fantasy points per game to both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers he has a question mark. Its a small question mark and most likely insignificant, but a question mark nonetheless. His coaching staff has been overhauled this season due to the bounty program and no ones sure how it will affect the New Orleans Saints as a team. That being said, I still consider Brees a safe pick and well worth a first round pick I just have him dropped one spot because of the slight uncertainty. Brees still has Jimmy Graham, one of the elite tight ends in the league and his star receiver Marques Colston. If you decide to take Brees before Calvin you should feel comfortable as you wait for your next pick. Brees averaged an astounding 24 points per game last year and is a great pick in the middle part of the first round.
8. Chris Johnson - I know, I know. The word of the day is safe. Let me explain. We all know how Chris Johnson killed fantasy owners last year and anyone that had him on their team will probably never draft him again. That being said, I still don't think we should forget the fantasy numbers that Johnson put up in 2010. Last year Johnson held out for the majority of training camp which is what I believe led to the kind of year he had. (Thats the reason why I'm not taking Maurice Jones Drew on any of my teams.) It doesn't matter how much a player tries to stay in shape on his own, there's nothing like football shape. If you recall in 2010 Johnson had 1600 total yards and 12 total touchdowns and if you get anywhere close to those numbers this year you will have the steal of the draft at number 8 overall. Johnson has had a full training camp this year and coaches are saying he's looked better then ever and I fully expect a bounce back year. For most people this might be too much of a question mark, but I personally don't feel like it is. If I have the opportunity to take Johnson late in the first round I'm grabbing him with no second thoughts.
9. Matthew Stafford - If you have the 9th pick and all the previous players that I have listed have been taken then Staffords your best bet.. It may not excite you to take the fourth best quarterback with your first round pick, but don't forget the word of the day. I don't believe that there's another running back out there without any strong questions and I don't want to take a wide receiver here because of how deep the position is. That leaves Stafford. Picking Stafford here shouldn't bother you simply because of the kind of season he had last year. He scored almost 22 points per game last year which is very close to the elite quarterbacks that I have already discussed. The only piece of Staffords resume that bothers me is the injury bug. Last year was Staffords first full season, but the kind of season he produced makes him worth a late first round pick. He still has one of the most talented receivers to ever live and other weapons around him, plus coming into the season the Lions have big question marks surrounding their run game which may force Stafford to throw even more. Like the other quarterbacks Stafford will give you an opportunity to win every game you play and you can't ask for anything more from your first round pick.
10. Matt Forte - Ill preface my explanation by stating that this was the toughest decision of the 10 picks in the first round. With my first round pick I'm still trying to avoid selecting a wide receiver and I don't believe that theres another quarterback with less holes than I could find in Forte. The main question facing Forte is the addition of Michael Bush who many believe will take away from Fortes goal line carries. The reason I decided to take Forte here is because that question mark is almost irrelevant altogether! Touchdowns have never been Fortes game! He averaged 13 points per game last year and scored only 4 touchdowns. His game is yards and there is no reason to believe that those numbers will slip. The other main concern with Forte is the injury question. Last year Forte only played in 12 games which may scare most people, but it was only one less game then Foster played in last year and in 2010 Forte played in all 16 games. I believe that your best bet is Forte at the end of round 1 especially because of the major question marks surrounding all other running backs. In a snake draft you will also have the next selection and the opportunity to get a guy like Cam Newton, a top wr or a high risk high potential running back.
If you have any questions or comments feel free to ask even if they are unrelated to the post. If you would like me to write a mock for a different type of league then just let me know. Hope this helped.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Fantasy Football Advice 24/7
For all my fellow fantasy football participants looking for advice this is the blog for you. I have been playing fantasy football for almost a decade and every year I do months of research for my upcoming draft. I decided that I should begin to use my research to help the public and give advice to anyone looking for it. I remember all the sleepless nights deciding between an injury prone wide receiver or a wide out with a below average quarterback. For the more serious leagues we all know the humiliation we face from our colleagues when you end up in last place, or as we call it in my league, "the loser." (That becomes your name for the next 7 months.) If it happens for two years in a row you don't want to know what we call you. In my worst nightmare I come in last place and walk into work to see all my league participants holding signs that read LOSER with a picture of my face on it. (Of course I never actually came in last place, but I understand the fear.) You would rather be the one holding the trophy and pride for the next couple of months until the next season of fantasy football begins. There are so many questions that need answers, whether it's the day of your draft and you need last minute advice, or if you're in the midst of your preliminary preparations, everyone could use a little bit of help. I will be posting in the blog daily with different pieces of information that I think everyone will be able to use.
Many people have personal fantasy football questions but no one to help them. This blog will offer everyone the opportunity to have their questions answered by the end of the day. Furthermore, if the question is urgent, for example, your draft is coming up in 30 minutes and you still think that Ladanian Tomlinson is the number one pick this year, then let me know that you need a quick answer and I will try and get back to you as quickly as possible. There's no shame in asking for advice. (Don't forget you want to be the one holding the trophy not the one that has to deal with the humiliation until the next season begins.)
There are many websites that offer fantasy football advice but none that offer answers to personal questions daily. Don't forget that I can't tell the future. Fantasy football is a game of statistics and you need to play the odds and that is where my months of research are useful. I hope to be able to help all in need. So go ahead. Ask away...
Many people have personal fantasy football questions but no one to help them. This blog will offer everyone the opportunity to have their questions answered by the end of the day. Furthermore, if the question is urgent, for example, your draft is coming up in 30 minutes and you still think that Ladanian Tomlinson is the number one pick this year, then let me know that you need a quick answer and I will try and get back to you as quickly as possible. There's no shame in asking for advice. (Don't forget you want to be the one holding the trophy not the one that has to deal with the humiliation until the next season begins.)
There are many websites that offer fantasy football advice but none that offer answers to personal questions daily. Don't forget that I can't tell the future. Fantasy football is a game of statistics and you need to play the odds and that is where my months of research are useful. I hope to be able to help all in need. So go ahead. Ask away...
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